Renewable Energy

Although global capital spending this year in the photovoltaics (PV) supply chain is expected to fall to its lowest level since 2006, indications signal that the downturn in investment has hit bottom and that purchases of equipment may soon rebound.

Capital spending among PV companies is set to drop to $2.3 billion in 2013, down 36 percent from $3.6 billion in 2012, according to the PV Manufacturing & Capital Spending Tool from information and analytics provider IHS (NYSE: IHS).

The anticipated fall will represent the lowest level of spending since $2.4 billion in 2006. It also marks the second year of decline after the market peaked in 2011, as spending plunged by 75 percent in 2012. However, capital expenditures are expected to rebound in 2014, rising 30 percent to $3.0 billion.

“Companies across all nodes of the PV business have been lowering utilization rates and letting manufacturing lines go idle for the past year and a half,” said Jon-Frederick Campos, solar analyst at IHS. “PV firms have been doing this in an effort to counter overcapacity and mitigate declines in average selling prices (ASP). This phenomenon resulted in a major plunge in spending on new manufacturing equipment in 2012 and so far in 2013.  But with prices stabilizing and manufacturing on the rise in some segments of the PV market, signs are appearing that that the drop in capital spending may be coming to an end.”

The supplier base for photovoltaic (PV) inverters further fragmented in 2012, with the total market share of the 10 largest suppliers falling by more than 4 percentage points, according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research, now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS).  

This was partly due to strong growth in demand from China and Japan, where most of the Top 10 largest suppliers have limited presence. SMA Solar Technology’s share of global revenue fell for the third consecutive year to slightly more than 25 percent—as the PV market continued to fragment and demand for its products weakened in its core markets. A flurry of recent M&A activity, including Advanced Energy’s acquisition of REFUsol and ABB’s purchase of Power-One, also has had little impact on the competitive landscape and has resulted in only minimal changes to the supplier rankings.

China’s JA Solar and Singapore-based Flextronics achieved the fastest growth among the Top 10 producers of photovoltaic (PV) modules in 2012, as the two companies cashed in on the soaring demand for contract manufacturing in the solar value chain.

JA Solar nearly doubled its PV module production in 2012, with its module production rising to 950 megawatts (MW) in 2012, up 96 percent from 490MW in 2011, according to the “IHS Solar Integrated PV Market Tracker – Q1 '13” from information and analytics provider IHS (NYSE: IHS). This caused the company’s rank among global PV module producers to rise to No. 6 in 2012, up from 14^th place in 2011.....

Reflecting a major shift in the global solar market after four years of severe erosion, prices for photovoltaic (PV) modules in the key European market are rising due to number of factors—including the newly restored balance between supply and demand.

Yingli from China became the largest global supplier of photovoltaic (PV) modules in 2012 based on annual merchant shipments, while previous leader and besieged fellow Chinese producer Suntech Power dropped to fifth place, according to the latest analysis from information and analytics provider IHS (NYSE: IHS).

In a year that proved very challenging for the entire PV industry, Yingli managed to increase its merchant shipment volumes by 43 percent year-over-year to leapfrog Suntech as well as U.S.-based First Solar, the two largest suppliers of 2011. First Solar managed to defend its position as the No. 2 module manufacturer, while Suntech lost significant ground and was displaced to fifth position behind Trina Solar and Canadian Solar. REC, the only Top 10 supplier headquartered in Europe, grew faster than most of its Chinese competitors in 2012. Increasing its module shipments by 31 percent year-over-year to 757 megawatts (MW), REC strengthened its position as a leading player in a highly competitive environment.

For the first time First Solar became the world’s largest photovoltaic (PV) EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) contractor in 2012, with more than 500 megawatts (MW) of projects completed – an increase of 50 percent over 2011, according to a new report from IMS Research, now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS). The report also revealed that a major shift in global rankings occurred in 2012 due to the explosive growth witnessed in Asia and the Americas at the expense of Europe. Just four European EPCs appeared in IHS’ top 10 rankings for 2012.

The Japanese photovoltaic (PV) market is set to grow by 120 percent in 2013 and install more than 5 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity, according to a new report,  “The PV Market in Japan,” from IMS Research, now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE:IHS). Benefiting from the world’s most attractive PV incentive policy, Japan’s solar market is currently booming, with installations expected to exceed 1 GW in the first quarter alone, causing it to become the second largest market in 2013.

The market for photovoltaic (PV) inverter service plans and extended warranties is forecast to grow by 110 percent between 2012 and 2017, according to a recent report entitled PV Inverter Service Plans & Extended Warranties from IMS Research, now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE:IHS). Despite PV inverter hardware profit margins being squeezed, the after-sales service market is forecast to more than double by 2017 to reach $1.7 billion, providing suppliers with a valuable additional profit source. 

A new survey conducted by IMS Research (now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE:IHS)) of more than 400 photovoltaic (PV) inverter purchasers has revealed that the most preferred PV inverter brand globally in 2012 was SMA Solar Technology. IMS Research’s recently released report PV Inverter Customer Survey – World - 2013 analyses the results of the survey and reveals the reasons behind PV inverter customers’ choice of supplier and product.

This is an IHS News Flash covering the Top 10 predictions for the global photovoltaic market in 2013, from the IHS Solar service at information and analytics provider IHS (NYSE: IHS).

“The photovoltaic industry is in the midst of wrenching change—buffeted by government incentive cuts and nose-diving prices that has hurt solar suppliers worldwide, rocked by trade disputes among its major players, and hamstrung by a sputtering global economy,” said Ash Sharma, director, solar research at IHS. “However, there are some bright spots ahead: Solar installations are on the rise, technology is becoming more efficient, and a weak EU market roiled by financial turmoil will be offset by an ascendant China and the United States.”

On-going, significant technological advances from  companies such as Solar Junction and Amonix will help drive concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) installations to almost 1.2 GW by 2016,  according to a new report from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS)).

El Segundo, Calif. (Oct. 30, 2012)—Overcapacity, a decline in pricing as well as slowing growth in key worldwide markets will serve to keep the global photovoltaic (PV) market for solar modules depressed for the rest of the year, with recovery not expected until well in the second half of 2013, according to a new IHS iSuppli PV Integrated market tracker report from information and analytics provider IHS (NYSE: IHS).

Global revenue for the solar module industry comprising both crystalline and thin-film modules fell for the first time this year during the third quarter to $6.63 billion, down 7 percent from $7.14 billion in the second quarter. Prior to the decline, revenue had been up 2 percent in the second quarter from $7.03 billion in the first quarter.

The market is projected to retreat further for a second time this year during the fourth quarter to $6.62 billion, with revenue continuing to trend down throughout the first half of 2013, as shown in the figure below. The industry will return to growth only by the second quarter next year, finally regaining lost ground by the fourth quarter when revenue springs back to an estimated $7.06 billion—just slightly more than when the market started in the first quarter this year. 

Wellingborough, UK (11^th October 2012) – Following a decline in the third quarter of 2012, global photovoltaic (PV) inverter shipments are forecast to reach a record of  8.6 gigawatts (GW), according to the latest report from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS)). An 18 percent year-on-year rise in global shipments will make the fourth quarter of 2012 the largest final quarter ever recorded. However, the report predicts far more modest revenue growth due to increasing price pressure for PV inverters. 

The concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) market is forecast to double in 2012 and reach almost 90 MW or $325 million, according to a new report from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS)). Furthermore, IMS Research predicts installations of this emerging technology will grow rapidly over the next five years to reach almost 1.2 GW by 2016.

The Americas photovoltaics (PV) market more than doubled in the first half of 2012 to reach 1.7 Gigawatts (GW) and is set to reach almost 4.3 GW for the full year according to the Q3 PV Demand Report from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS)). Installations grew by more than 120 percent in the first half of this year and will help drive the global PV market to grow by at least 3 GW in 2012, according to the research firm.

China’s photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing base saw a major setback in the first and second quarters of 2012, with a severe slump in exports sparking the government to step in and further raise its PV installation target to 50GW according to the latest quarterly report on China’s PV market from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS)). Tough competition in the global market place, vast oversupply and falling prices has put Chinese manufacturers’ balance sheets under huge pressure and China’s government has responded by more than doubling its long-term installation target from 20 to 50 GW by 2020.

The budget available to for Italy’s Conto Energia V PV incentive program could be cut to less than half of the intended amount, wiping out any FIT budget for 2013 and significantly reducing the outlook for installations in Italy over the next three years, according to the latest report from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS)). The research firm’s latest quarterly PV Demand Database report reveals that whilst the new feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme could have supported an additional 7.5 gigawatts (GW) of installations over the next two years, it is now likely that it will result in just 3 GW of additional installations, with the FiT closing as early as 2013.

Average gross profits of crystalline photovoltaic (PV) industry module manufacturers fell to just nine U.S. cents per watt in the first quarter of 2012, putting huge pressure on suppliers according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS). As a result of continued price pressure and highly competitive market conditions throughout the PV industry, gross profits are forecast to continue to fall further to just seven cents per watt by the end of 2012. 

The average price of photovoltaic (PV) wafers in the first quarter of 2012 fell by more than 70 percent in a year according to the latest research released by IMS Research, which was recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE:IHS). This dramatic price collapse, caused by a global oversupply, has significantly changed the cost structures and strategies of leading PV module suppliers and making many switch from in-house production to buying in their wafer supply. Throughout 2010 and 2011, many suppliers had quickly expanded their in-house wafer capacities. However, as wafer prices have fallen by over $0.70/W to record lows, suppliers are now reducing their in-house manufacturing and purchasing more wafers from third-party suppliers.

The Chinese PV inverter market, driven by the introduction of the national FiT, grew by over 400% in 2011 to reach more than 2.5 GW in shipments according to a new report from IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS). The report also found that the market was highly consolidated in 2011 and the ten largest suppliers, which accounted for over 80% of shipments, included only one non-Chinese manufacturer. The strong growth of the Chinese market and the dominance of domestic suppliers will lead to Chinese manufacturers gaining significant share of the global PV inverter market, the research firm concluded.

PV balance of system (BoS) equipment revenues are projected to increase from $17 billion in 2011 to close to $24 billion in 2016. The report found that whilst inverters will continue to be the largest part of the market, monitoring hardware, mounting structures and tracker systems will outpace the rest of the market to capture an increasing share.

Despite the outlook for the PV manufacturing equipment market remaining bleak in 2012, a new report from IMS Research forecasts that there could be a 20 GW opportunity for the upgrade or replacement of existing capacity over the next four years.

The PV inverter market declined once again in Q3’11 with industry revenues in Euros falling by over 20% year-on-year according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research. A lethargic quarter in Germany was the main contributor where third quarter revenues were over 50% down compared to Q3’10. Although this is a dire statistic for the industry to consider, a positive is that prices stabilised in the third quarter, a welcome relief for suppliers that have had to endure heavy price erosion since the turn of the year. However, average prices are still 15% lower than in 2010.

The market for PV manufacturing equipment will more than halve in 2012 according to the latest quarterly-updated report from IMS Research. Significant decreases in the “new” manufacturing capacity required and limited demand for upgrade or replacement of existing capacity will result in a projected market decline of over 55% in revenues in 2012 from 2011.

PV component profits are set to fall by 70% year-on-year in Q4’11 according to new analysis from IMS Research. The market research firm’s analysis of the polysilicon, wafer, cell, module and inverter industries found that that collapsing prices throughout 2011 will cause gross margins for the whole PV industry combined to slide by 17 percentage points to just 12.4% in Q4’11. 

Rapidly declining PV module prices will result in the global industry revenues contracting in 2011 and 2012 according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research. A huge oversupply of PV modules and fierce competition has led to module prices falling quickly throughout 2011; despite shipments increasing, revenues are forecast to shrink by almost 10% in 2011, and shrink yet again in 2012.

US PV module supplier, Solyndra, announced yesterday that it had shut its manufacturing facility and will file for bankruptcy, the third to do so in a month. The seemingly overnight decision, and the failure of the business, should really come as no surprise and is a warning to all other PV module start-ups according to IMS Research.

PV inverter suppliers continued to suffer in Q2’11 with industry revenues falling by 1.3% year-on-year, following sharp price declines, according to IMS Research’s latest quarterly report. However it was not all bad news in Q2 and inverter shipments in fact grew sharply by more than 40% versus Q1 indicating that excess inventory is no longer blighting the industry and that demand may be more robust downstream in 2H’11.

‘Smart’ PV inverter shipments are forecast to grow to 27 GW in 2015, accounting for almost 60% of the market compared to just 20% in 2010 according to the latest report from IMS Research. This is being driven by utility concerns over grid imbalances, the growing proportion of PV connected to the grid, as well as the need for energy storage to take advantage of self-consumption tariffs and further incorporate PV into the ‘smart grid’.

Following 2010’s massive increase, the global PV inverter market is predicted to decline below $6bn in 2011, a fall of more than 10% according to a new report from IMS Research. Despite the analyst firm predicting global installations to grow this year, inventory overhang from 2010 and high price pressure will drive industry revenues down this year the report reveals.

More than 21 GW of new PV capacity is predicted to be installed in 2011, up from around 18 GW in 2010 according to IMS Research’s latest report on PV demand. The market research firm has raised its outlook for this year based on new information on supply chain pricing which will help stimulate demand in major markets. However, the firm also cut its long-term forecast slightly due to decreasing incentives in several markets. 

Global PV module inventory levels have reached over 10 GW in Q2’11, the highest amount recorded to date, according to the latest analysis from IMS Research. High inventory levels, as well as lower incentive levels in key European markets, have contributed to rapidly decreasing prices during the quarter.

Power-One was the PV inverter market’s largest share gainer in 2010, moving up to second in the global rankings according to IMS Research’s latest report on the market. The report will also reveal that for the first time all of the top 10 suppliers to the market in 2010 were European – largely due to the explosive market growth in key European markets that these suppliers enjoyed. The top five gainers in market share in 2010 were Power-One, Siemens, Advanced Energy, Sungrow and Danfoss.

Following recent proposals from the Department of Energy and Climate Change to dramatically reduce the tariff paid to those with solar PV (photovoltaic) energy schemes generating more than 50kW, power experts at IMS Research are questioning the viability and future of solar energy in the UK.

Germany’s BELECTRIC developed more than 300 MW of PV systems in 2010, propelling it to the top of IMS Research’s 2010 Global PV System Integrator Rankings. The company (formerly known as Beck Energy) narrowly edged out Germany-based juwi, and ranked five places ahead of 2009 leader Q-Cells International, which saw close to zero MW growth last year.

Asian electronics giants such as Samsung and LG continue to enter the growing PV market, transferring their expertise in other cost-driven fields and are aiming to capture a major share of the market and IMS Research predicts that Asia’s share of PV cell production will reach nearly 85% by the end of 2011. Although the market is currently rife with fears of a module oversupply, these large Taiwanese and Korean electronics suppliers, such as Samsung, LG, AUO and Taiwan Semiconductor have all recently announced impressive expansion plans for their solar business segments.

IMS Research, global electronics industry analysts, is delighted to announce a number of key strategic developments that will help the company continue to expand in the coming year: 

Wellingborough, UK – 17^th January 2011 – A new report from IMS Research estimates that new PV installations grew by a massive 130% to reach 17.5 GW in 2010, confirming the firm’s earlier prediction back in Q3’10 that newly added global capacity would hit 17 GW. Furthermore, the new report predicts that installations will see double-digit growth in 2011, to reach 20.5 GW and take the total installed capacity to 58 GW by the end of the year.

US PV system integrators gained places in the rankings in 2010 according to the latest analysis from IMS Research. The market intelligence provider, which conducts ongoing surveys of system integrators and utilities, revealed that three large-scale system providers from the US appeared amongst the ten largest integrators in 2010 for the first time.

Chinese crystalline PV giants, Suntech and JA Solar, topped the rankings for PV module shipments and PV cell production in Q3’10, according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research. Suntech increased its PV module shipments by an impressive 25% over the previous quarter, to retain the top position, which it had first claimed in the second quarter of this year.

WELLINBOROUGH, UK – 17^th November 2010 – Despite shipments of PV modules set to grow in 2011, rapid price erosion may see a decline in market revenues next year according to the latest analysis from IMS Research. A detailed analysis of key industry metrics revealed that although MW shipments of modules have grown at an average of 60% over the past 2 years, industry revenues have only grown by only 13%. As the industry prepares to enter a period of softening demand and decreasing prices, suppliers will need to concentrate on growing revenues and profits and not just focus on who’s shipping the most MWs.

US thin film producer First Solar continued to lose ground in Q3’10 according to the latest analysis from IMS Research. Having been the largest producer of PV cells for 6 consecutive quarters, an increase of just 2% means that it will move to be the third largest in the third quarter. Chinese rivals Suntech and JA Solar, will both overtake First Solar, having increased their production capacities rapidly as demand has spiraled in 2010.

The utility-scale PV market is set to surge next year, growing five-times faster than the rest of the industry, according to the latest analysis from IMS Research. This high demand predicted for 2011 supports US thin-film solar module producer, First Solar’s recent decision to make significant increases to its production capacity expansion plans for the next two years. Two additional four-line plants will be added in USA and Vietnam in 2012 in addition to previously announced expansions in France, Germany and Malaysia.

Annualized PV cell production capacity increased once again in Q2’10, reaching over 25 GW according to a recent report from IMS Research. IMS Research forecasts that capacity will reach 33 GW by the end of the year, over 80% of which will be for crystalline cell technologies and warns that gross margins will fall in 2011.

The global PV market is forecast to exceed 16 GW in 2010 according to recently released projections from IMS Research. Demand for PV systems is predicted to more than double in 2010, with the top five markets accounting for more than 13 GW, although much slower growth is predicted in 2011 according to the market research firm's recent survey results.

Crystalline PV module supplier Suntech, shipped more modules during the second quarter of 2010 than any other company according to the latest analysis from IMS Research. The Chinese supplier shipped more modules in the quarter than previous market leader and thin-film rival First Solar for the first time since Q3'08 to become the largest supplier to the global PV module market during the quarter.

Despite PV module shipments forecast to increase for 6 consecutive quarters since Q1’09, IMS Research’s latest report warns that the industry’s future is not all bright from Q4’10 and that shipments will decline by close to 10% quarter-on-quarter in Q1’11.